LIES, DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS

Mark Twain might have had something to say about CWACC’s dabbling with numbers in their Topic Paper on Housing and Population.  They reckon that there’s an average net inflow into the area of 925 individuals per annum but that 70% of households who move are from within the district anyway (no mention of how many people that translates to).  So, somehow CWACC ‘expects’ the number of households to increase by 950 each year but then translates that number into an annual requirement for 1,840 new dwellings to be erected until March 2021.  They repeatedly (seven times in a 17-page document by my count) tell us that there is a requirement in the Regional Spatial Strategy to build 1,317 homes annum^-1 (I’m trying my best not to be repetitive) and that, thanks to the Government’s initiative (sic.) to turn the area into a ‘Growth Point’, that number now has to be increased by a further 23%.  By the way, the creation of the 211-page document which is the RSS (CWACC-speak) gave something for the unelected mob which constitutes the Government Office for the North West to do at our expense.  Thanks, JP.

I’m sure everyone knows that in 2008 the Regional Spatial Strategy replaced the Local Plan as amended in the Cheshire Structure Plan Alteration which set-out building targets to 2016.  No surprises in that the net effect was an increase of 750 houses/year but watch out because CWACC assures us that work is already underway to replace the RSS with a ‘Single Integrated Strategy’ for the Northwest.  Any advance on 1,840?

Before anyone starts shouting at me, CWACC reports that the number of households who were homeless in 2008 was either 250 or 205 (they don’t seem to be sure which).  It’s obviously a good idea to deal with that issue but then let’s try and work out why we should support a strategy to direct the building of 20,673 new houses to accommodate 11,100 people, more than 70% of whom might just be shuffling around the district anyway (the Cheshire Structure Plan Alteration tells us that the average household constitutes somewhere between 2.4 and 2.15 individuals:  you work it out, I can’t).

The last thing that’s completely baffling yours truly is that GON West dictated that 23,700 ‘units’ (houses, kitchen cabinets?) had to be built between 2003 and 2021.  Okay so far, 23,700 divided by 18 is 1317 but CWACC’s antecedent only built 5,745 ‘units’ during the last six years, so that means they’ve got to build the remaining 17,955 over the next 12.  Still okay because 17,955 divided by 12 is 1,496 and 1,496 times 1.23 is 1,840.  So how do they go on to conclude that factoring in the ‘Growth Point’ housing target means that a further 2,718 ‘units’ will be ‘required’ before 2017?  Unless it’s me that’s living on minor planet 6805, Abstracta,, I’d say that 23% was already factored in¹.

It occurs to me to wonder whether CWACC has thought about all that Council Tax that 30,543 new houses (that’s 1,840 times 12 plus the 5,745 already built plus the 2,718 units from nowhere) will bring in.  I don’t suppose it’s crossed their minds.

Theoghinus Nuttors, 28 July 2009.

¹The ‘Growth Point’ programme covers nine years from 2008 to 2017.  According to the RSS dictat, 11,853 new buildings are to be constructed over that period and the Whitehall mob have added 23% to that.  Twenty three percent of 11,853 is 2,726 (which is close enough to 2,718 not to ruffle anyone’s feathers) but CWACC already seems to have landed us with 4,128 additional houses (1,840 minus 1,496 times 12).